Sep 29, 2022
eek 4 of the 2022 NFL season and after a surviving a topsy-turvy three weeks of game results, expect some "normalcy" to return as it's becoming gradually easier to figure out the most and least reliable teams in the league.
That should mean only bigger and better things for Sporting News' picks and predictions against the spread going forward. Although these selections are for "entertainment purposes only", it's time to get serious to battle back against the numbers.
By the numbers, the Dolphins defied logic with their win over the Bills to get to 3-0, following a near-impossible comeback to take down the Ravens. There is bound to be some regression to the mean and their blitzing defense plays well into the hands of Joe Burrow, who got well passing last week. Tua Tagovailoa's back injury and limited running game help will make this spot difficult in a hostile environment on a short week. Miami is bound for the classic letdown while Cincinnati continues marching back into the AFC playoff conversation.
Pick: Bengals win 27-23 and cover the spread.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense couldn't get much of anything going against a very similar Todd Bowles-led Buccaneers defense in Super Bowl 55. The Bucs have their share of offensive issues around Tom Brady tied to injuries, but they will get a bit reinforced this week with weaponry and blocking to have a more balanced and explosive attack. Kansas City will see more of a compressed passing game again while Tampa Bay sees some expansion to how it usually has operated with the GOAT.
Pick: Buccaneers win 24-23.
The Bills statistically dominated the Dolphins with Josh Allen having another massive game. They ended up stopping themselves in critical situations that cost them the game. The Ravens melted down late against the Dolphins or they would be 3-0 instead give the way Lamar Jackson also has sparkled as a passer and runner, too. The health of Buffalo's secondary is a concern here, but its zone defense will contain the chunk plays from Jackson. Baltimore, even with its playmaking talent on the back end, has proved it can give up too much downfield because of needing to resort more to blitzing.
Pick: Bills win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
The Packers are back rolling with the ideal offense-defense complementary football with Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers after their typical Week 1 mess. Rodgers outdueled the GOAT last week and now he'll take to the shell of his former team against a shockingly reeling Bill Belichick defense. The Patriots will need to hope that Brian Hoyer, filling in for an injured Mac Jones, can dig deep to find something more in the passing game while being too run heavy. That won't work well on the road in their current dysfunctional offensive state.
Pick: Packers win 30-10 and cover the spread.
Minnesota is still trying to figure out its offensive identity under Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings can be a massive passing team with Kirk Cousins and it's good they have found some big-play pop away from Justin Jefferson. They also got on track running vs. the Lions and can still have more success on the ground with or without Dalvin Cook. The Saints are all over the place in trying to find balance and explosiveness with Jameis Winston and will come in hurting more with key offensive injuries. Dennis Allen's defense can only contain so much in London.
Pick: Vikings win 24-17 and cover the spread.
The Browns are close to being 3-0 as well had they not melted down late against the Jets in Week 2. They will go into Atlanta well rested and likely some traveling support from the Dawg Pound. When Nick Chubb goes back down to Georgia, the Falcons' run defense can prepared to get gashed. The Falcons simply don't have the power and pop to match with the Browns can do on either of the ball even with Marcus Mariota joining Jacoby Brissett and playing better than expected overall at QB.
Pick: Browns win 23-20 and cover the spread.
The Commanders are an absolute defensive mess under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. They cannot stop anything vs. the run or pass and are very undisciplined in giving up big plays. The Cowboys are methodical and creative offensively without Dak Prescott, as Cooper Rush and the running game are set up well to produce here. Then Micah Parsons and Dallas' defense will take care of the rest by taking it to Carson Wentz.
Pick: Cowboys win 20-14.
The Seahawks can stay in this game with Geno Smith throwing to their wide receivers given issues in Detroit's secondary. But that will happen for only a while as Jared Goff and his weapons will see wide-open spaces in coverage and the Lions have proved they can pound the ball and run well on anyone.
Pick: Lions win 31-23 and cover the spread.
Derrick Henry got on track for the Titans last week to earn them their first win. Jonathan Taylor has been contained for a couple games but the Colts were able to get a big win without him going off in Week 2. The Titans are crumbling a bit up front in their offense and are inconsistent with their wide receivers, a break for the Colts' new-look defense. This is meant to be a Taylor-dominated game and he will let Indy ride him to victory.
Pick: Colts win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Justin Fields and Daniel Jones are bound to give us the ugliest game of the week as these two new coaches, Matt Eberflus and Brian Daboll try to grind out another win with the defense and running game. Using that method, someone needs to come out on top, barring a low-scoring tie. Side with the Giants having the slightly better formula with Jones supported by Saquon Barkley and a capable of making better dual-threat plays than Fields at home.
Pick: Giants win 16-13 but fail to cover the spread.
Doug Pederson will try to fare better in his revenge game vs. Philadelphia than Carson Wentz did. Pederson has his offense looking complete with Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, James Robinson and others. This is a good defensive challenge for the Jaguars but they will have some success moving the ball with a dynamic and diverse attack. The Jaguars' defense is seeing some young players stand out early, but there are still enough issues to struggle on the road with the Eagles' balance and explosiveness led by a red-hot Jalen Hurts.
Pick: Eagles win 34-27 and cover the spread.
It looks like the Steelers won't get one more shot at old Ravens rival Joe Flacco as Zach Wilson is expected to return and start for New York. The Steelers insist on sticking with Mitchell Trubisky over rookie Kenny Pickett, which gives them the veteran edge, even though a Wilson-Pickett matchup would give this game more of a young QB groove. The Steelers will keep things simple with a rebound outing for the T.J. Watt-less defense and running game to avoid the upset at home.
Pick: Steelers win 23-17 and cover the spread.
The Chargers seemed out of sorts with Justin Herbert not fully healthy against the Jaguars. They were playing without Keenan Allen again and also lost left tackle Rashawn Slater and edge rusher Joey Bosa. The injury curse might be back to give them powder blues, but this screams get-well game on the road for Herbert and all of his weapons, namely Austin Ekeler. Davis Mills is fading hard as Houston's starting QB and Los Angeles' defense will be motivated for a strong effort vs. the pass.
Pick: Chargers win 34-14 and cover the spread.
Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield both won Heisman Trophies playing quarterback for Oklahoma and also went No. 1 overall in their respective NFL Drafts. Unfortunately, neither QB is playing up to the team expectations, Murray vs. his massive new contract and Mayfield vs. his supposed savior status.
Murray needs to take offensive matters more into his own hands or Arizona is in danger of freefall out of playoff contention, The defense has started to play better and it's time for him to respond and here he should get plenty of support from James Conner and the traditional running game. The Panthers' offensive woes around Mayfield continue, including not knowing how to use his weapons well.
Pick: Cardinals win 24-14.
The Broncos and Raiders are breaking in new offensive-minded coaches, Nathaniel Hackett and Josh McDaniels. Russell Wilson and Derek Carr have been slow to adapt and deliver in the new systems, despite having ample receiving weaponry. The play-calling isn't in sync for either QB, but Las Vegas has shown more signs of things coming together soon. Denver's defense has overachieved early and will come down to earth on the road. Desperation kicks in for Carr and the feisty Raiders and they get the win to get them back in a suddenly underachieving AFC West.
Pick: Raiders win 23-20 and cover the spread.
The Rams and 49ers are getting shaky quarterback play as Matthew Stafford is coming off a right elbow injury and Jimmy Garoppolo is operating post right shoulder surgery. This should be a typical, grinding, close physical game between the two NFC West archrivals that plays out much like their final two big meetings of 2022, including the NFC title game. Give the edge to the 49ers for better overall defense and a more reliable running game at home tied to the strong recent history of Kyle Shanahan vs. Sean McVay.
Pick: 49ers win 20-17.
Week 3 record straight up: 10-6
Week 3 record against the spread: 9-7
Season record straight up: 28-19
Season record against the spread: 24-24